The History of Tattoos in the USA Research Paper

The History of Tattoos in the USA - Research Paper Example â€Å"In the Jesuit Relations of 1663, it was reported that an Iroquois chief known to the French as "Nero" bore on this thighs 60 tattooed characters, each of which symbolized an enemy killed with his own hand†. Captain James Cook made a voyage to Tahitia in 1769 where he noticed that the local people were skilled in making their skins. The indigenous people printed symbols on their bodies and tattooing was established as a field of art. The American sailors in the early nineteenth century played a fundamental role in the evolvement of tattooing in the USA. In the ancient America, tattoos were associated with the sailors that used to learn the art of tattooing from their seagoing brethren of the British origin. Sailors in the past used to have faith in the power of tattoos. Sailors would carve their skin to display patterns that they believed had the power to protect them on their sea voyages, â€Å"pay homage to sailing traditions and the fraternity of seafarers, memorializ e loved ones, and showcase mementos of significant experiences and exotic locales† (â€Å"Skin and bones†). Pricking was the term used for the log of the seamen. People began to open their shops near the ports of the ships in order to provide the sailors with access to the tattoos. The designs of tattoos were inspired by the sea-life. There were tattoos of mermaids, anchors and numerous other objects like crosses and hearts. Sailor Jerry Collins is placed amongst the pioneers of the traditional tattooing practice in the USA. He wanted to bring a revolution in the Western style. According to him, the indigenous

Strategic marketing Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Strategic marketing - Essay Example Another crucial thing which needs to be ensured is the coordination in the work of volunteers to establish organizational effectiveness (Hockey Australia, The Clubhouse Team Kit, 2005). Another important area of concern for the volunteer management is the volunteer turnover. Volunteer turnover is often said to be the result of the lack of recognition by the organization of their employees’ value to the organization, to the policies of growth and lack of advancement opportunities. Thus reducing volunteer turnover will be a prime concern and I think it can be achieved through effective monitoring and increase in organizational commitment (Cronin, 2011, 60). Exit interview Having discussed the significance of the volunteer management I will like to conduct exit interview question to the volunteers leaving the club. Exit interview is an important tool as information can be gathered from the volunteers regarding their experience in the organization no matter how long or short their stay may be and accordingly help us to formulate new strategies in the Human Resource Management practices. It may be the case that under emotional stress some of them will not be willing to take the interviews (Volunteer Management Program Retaining Volunteers, Australian Sports Commission, 2000, 22). The questions I would to like to make in the interview sessions are as follows: 1. What is your prime reason for leaving? This is the most obvious and important question I would like to ask because it will give an overview of the reasons of leaving the organization 2. Are you looking for a better opportunity? (Yes/No)-Give reasons I will ask this question as it will provide the platform to analyze the loopholes and accordingly help to make strategy intervention 3. What was the most enjoyable and what were the least enjoyable aspects of your volunteering role? This question will be asked to intervene the dimension of the motivational aspect of the organization 4. Do you feel you recei ved adequate support in your role? (Yes/No) A random question to judge the spontaneous answer of the volunteer 5. Do you feel you received adequate training in your role? (Yes/No)-Give reasons Training is an integral part in the sporting organization. So analyzing this special area will be a necessity 6. How do you really feel about this organization? This should be a general question to know the understanding of the organization by the volunteers 7. Would you recommend others to volunteer for this organization? This would be asked for the feelings of the leaving volunteers towards the fellow volunteers towards the organization (Volunteer Exit Interview, n.d.). ‘Volunteer retain’ policies This is a fact that the expectation of volunteer turnover is high and often demands for an organizational change in large sporting clubs. But within the constraints of the limited resources optimal policies should be adapted in recruiting, orientating, and training new volunteers and i nfuse within them a value creation. Various motivational policies can be adapted for retaining volunteers. Offering education and training programs which include leadership courses, mentor training and various guidelines for explaining the roles and the responsibilities of the volunteers. Clear pathway should be created for the people so that they can feel the thrust to achieve higher levels of targets (Burd, 2009). Communication with the volunteers is a vital point. Among the

Effect of Bilingualism on Ageing and the Brain

Effect of Bilingualism on Ageing and the Brain Nur’Aisyah Binte Yussof In Wiley’s journal article, he states that speaking two languages benefits the aging brain. He presents his ideas, arguments and analysis with supporting evidence from epidemiological study by Dr. Bak and colleagues from the Centre for Cognitive Aging and Cognitive Epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh. This critical review will examine another three different articles on this issue and would evaluate its contents based on the assumption from Wiley’s article. Although Wiley had proven his point, his article might be biased and contains some misinterpretation of data coming from only one source of research to prove his point that bilingualism benefits the aging brain. Thus, the other research studies to support his ideology. In the first paragraph of Wiley’s journal article, he stated that â€Å"bilingualism is thought to improve cognition and delay dementia in older adults.† This conclusion is based on the data from the study of the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 undertaken by The University of Edinburgh Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, part of the cross council Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Initiative (MR/K026992/1). The results from this study indicate that those who spoke two or more languages had significantly better cognitive abilities compared to what would be expected from their baseline. Wiley, as supported by the research study determines that bilingualism has a positive effect on cognition and may slow down cognitive decline from aging. The research done proved that acquiring a second language, even as an adult may benefit the aging brain. Bilingualism allows the brain to respond more rapidly to the conditions that placed greater demands on the working memory. Stagnant use of the brain; monolinguals, would result in the brain to slow down and be more prone to effects of aging. Cognitive abilities are better when the language sphere is used more often thus, increasing the rate of brain functions. Distinguished Professor of Psychology from Penn State; Judith Kroll stated that â€Å"Bilingual speakers can outperform monolinguals (people who speak only one language) in certain mental abilities, such as editing out irrelevant information and focusing on important information.† Bilingual speakers may benefit and perform better in tasks such as multi-tasking and also have an advantage in attention and cognitive control which will have long-term benefits. Increasing use of these systems slows down aging and also deters sickness such as dementia and also Alzheimer’s. These three articles from Ellen Bialystok, American Academy of Neurology and Universtat Jaume I, acknowledged the fact that bilingualism benefits the aging brain. In the book from Ellen Bialystok; Bilingualism in development: language, literacy and cognition, she explained that bilingualism involves language proficiency which consisted of two cognitive processes, analysis of representational structure and control of attention. These cognitive processes would determine proficiency through the degree of involvement and mental representations that refers to the process of explicit structure and organization of information represented with knowledge. â€Å"Language proficiency is the ability to function in a situation that is defined by specific cognitive and linguistic demands, to a level of performance indicated by either objective criteria or normative standards.† The journal article by the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) states that: â€Å"Speaking more than one language is thought to lead better development of areas of the brain that handle executive functions and attention tasks, which may help protect from the onset of dementia†. In addition, the journal article from Universitat Jaume I states that, bilinguals use the left inferior frontal lobe, the Brocas area, to respond to stimuli where executive functions are performed (such as ordering forms by colour or shape), whereas monolinguals use the right part to respond to the same stimuli.Findings are very important because they show an unknown aspect of bilingualism, which goes beyond linguistic advantages, and they also show bilinguals are more effective in responding to certain stimuli, explains researcher Cesar Avila, who ensures the research shows that bilingualism does not only have effects on the brain at a linguistic level, but that it also works differently, emphasizing the importance of introducing languages at an early age because it generates cognitive benefits. All of these sources, with supporting evidence links back to the main article that we studied, whereby it is strongly believed that bilingualism would benefit the aging brain. These articles contain similar arguments about how language and use of cognitive process are inter-related. With the brain performing cognitive processes while a bilingual person speaks, it would increase brain activities which in turn would benefit aging brain to not be vulnerable to sickness such as dementia or Alzheimer’s disease due to frequent activities in the brain. In an American Academy of Neurology study, stagnant use of brain, such as monolinguals, would increase the risk of one developing a sickness four and a half years before bilinguals. Although believed that bilingualism will benefit the aging brain, cognitive functions due bilingualism, that slow down due to aging can be fine tuned and maintained in other ways as well. It is measured by the efficiency level of our brain as we age. For example, being physically active produces positive effects on many cognitive functions, such as memory, attention, information processing and problem solving. Cognitive abilities in an aging brain could still be active as it was in the youth through spatial attention which is critical in many aspects of our daily lives. According to the research from Dr Joanna Brooks, certain types of cognitive systems in the right cerebral hemisphere, are encapsulated and may be protected from aging. Thus, bilingualism would not be the only factor that would benefit the aging brain. This critical review examines the findings of Wiley and a few other research studies to determine if bilingualism would benefit the aging brain. Being supported by most studies, Wiley’s statement is credible. However, bilingualism, being the only factor would not be strong enough to benefit the aging brain. Cognitive abilities, such as the biologically organized mental structure in the brain known as the Language Acquisition Device facilitates the learning of a language and allows the rapid cognitive activity which will also benefit the aging brain. Wiley’s article misleads readers and focuses attention only on bilingualism while ignoring other factors that will also affect or benefit the aging brain. 1029 words. References: Association for Psychological Science. (2010, November 9). Bilingual benefits reach beyond communication. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 12, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/11/101109113028.htm Bialystok, E. (2001). Bilingualism in Development: Language, Literacy, and Cognition. United Kingdom, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Concordia University. (2013, January 16). Language mixing in children growing up bilingual. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 12, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/01/130116123641.htm Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School Singapore. (2014, July 1). The less older adults sleep, the faster their brains age, new study suggests. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 11, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/07/140701091458.htm Ithaca College. (2013, July 15). Bilingual children have a two-tracked mind. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 12, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/07/130715151106.htm Northwestern University. (2014, September 2). Community music programs enhance brain function in at-risk children. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 12, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/09/140902205335.htm Penn State. (2011, February 21). Juggling languages can build better brains. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 12, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/02/110218092529.htm Suomen Akatemia (Academy of Finland). (2014, February 5). Links explored between physical activity, learning. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 12, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/02/140205091550.htm Umeà ¥ universitet. (2012, April 27). Maintain your brain: The secrets to aging success. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 11, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/120427163335.htm Universitat Jaume I. (2010, July 7). Bilingualism associated with brain reorganization involving better efficiency in executive functions, research finds. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 12, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/07/100707065139.htm Wiley. (2014, June 2). Speaking two languages benefits the aging brain. ScienceDaily. Retrieved October 12, 2014 from www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140602101204.htm

Eating Disorders Essay -- essays research papers fc

Eating Disorders   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  One of the most prevalent disorders amongst the youth of this era is eating disorders. While some overlook it and don’t think it is a problem eating disorders should be given serious consideration. This is because the psychological ramification of eating disorders tends to have lasting effects over the course of the adolescents’ life.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  An eating disorder is any of various psychological disorders, such as anorexia nervosa or bulimia, which involves insufficient or excessive food intake. They are a silent epidemic and a exceedingly negative response to a misinterpretation of one’s role in the world. Adolescents with eating disorders are usually convinced they’re ugly, worthless, and untalented. While some overlook it and don’t think it is a problem it should be given serious consideration because the psychological ramifications of such a disorder has lasting effects over the course of the adolescents life. While eating disorders are a serious problem there are two distinct forms of eating disorders. One is anorexia and the other is bulimia.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Anorexia nervosa is characterized by self-starvation to avoid obesity. This is also known as the "starvation sickness" or the "dieter’s disease". Statistics show that 95% of all anorexics are women found primarily in upper-middle class homes ranging from ages 12 to 18. (Maloney, 81). A person dealing with this sort of disorder is usually, striving for perfection has low self-esteem, and sometimes feels they don’t deserve to eat.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Anorexia usually starts when they or someone else feels that the anorexic needs to lose some weight. They feel good when they start losing the weight because they feel they have reached and made progress on their goal. Unfortunately, this causes physical damage and sometimes-even death. Statistics have estimated about 10% will eventually die. (Patterson, 31). Although as an adolescent most go on a diet and give it up in about a week or two, anorexics don’t. If one is suffering from this they have signs and symptoms such as: noticeable weight loss, excessive exercising, odd eating habits, feeling cold, dressing in baggy clothes, irregular menstruation, a frequent feeling of insecurity, loneliness, inadequacy, and helplessness.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  There is no one single reason for anorexia, or how it goes unnoticed, but there are some explanations. One is that the perso... ...e without proper treatment and acknowledgement. People need to be educated about the disease and that the so-called 'glamour' looks aren’t so pretty after all in fact looks unhealthy. What happened to the healthy curvatious Marilyn Monroe look? Now there is the unsightly look of bones sticking out of skin. Young teens want to be like the famous ones. People that are looked at as role models are pressured but if they were to all rebel against this and think about what they stand for perhaps things would change to the way they used to be, or even better. This is a serious matter that people need to be educated about. The disease will prevail and many young women will suffer a great deal of their lives if it is left ignored. Works Cited Abraham, Suzanne, and Derek Llewellyn-Jones Eating   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Disorders: the facts. Oxford New   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  York: Oxford   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  University Press, 1997. Claude-Pierre, Peggy The Secret Language of Eating   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Disorders. New York: Times   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Books 1997. Maloney, Michael, and Rachel Kranz Straight talk about   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  eating disorders. New York:   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Facts on File, 1991. Patterson, Charles Eating Disorders. Austin tex: Raintree   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Steck-Vaughn, 1995.

Managing Multinational Operations IP Essay

Organizations cannot remain â€Å"static†. They has to keep on moving breaking ‘boundaries’ both geographically as well as economically, to actualize the opportunities and emerge successful. That is, with every firms wanting to expand their geographical reach and make an imprint in various markets, there will be enough opportunities for it, to initiate an entry into a foreign market. To initiate and actualize the entry, firms have to set targets and formulate various strategies according to the situation prevailing in those foreign markets. While formulating the strategies, the organizations’ leader and the management team will firstly look at the factors that may aid them to make a successful entry. After analyzing the positive factors, the firms will or should have to analyze the challenges that may impede its entry. As every foreign market or country will have different political, social, economic conditions as well as different customers, competitors, prospective employees, etc, etc, there will be many challenges, which will block the firms’ success. Also, there will be country specific challenges as well as industry specific challenges in those foreign markets. For example, the Asian country of China has some distinct aspects, which will surely act as a challenge for the new firms, who are planning to enter it In the earlier decades, the cheap Chinese products only entered various countries’ markets. But, now seeing the potential of the Chinese economy and the market many foreign firms or foreign invested firms have entered or entering the Chinese markets. The other thing, which is enticing the foreign firms, is the huge population, which translates into the biggest market of the world. Apart from these two important aspects (high economic growth and huge market), the main thing that allows the foreign firms to enter China is the relaxation of many restrictions imposed by the Chinese Government. China being a Communist country functioned behind an â€Å"Iron Curtain†, restricting the foreign firms to protect the home-grown firms. But, due to globalization and the resultant economic growth, the government saw the full potential of the Chinese market. â€Å"Rising prosperity and a rapidly commercialising economy have transformed China into the world’s most important emerging market â€Å"(consume. bbk. ac. uk, n. d. ). So, Chinese government started to allow the entry of foreign firms. But, the main decision of the Chinese government which worked as the catalyst for more foreign entry is the relaxation of the restrictions, which was brought about by China’s entry into World Trade Organization. But, even with all these favourable situations, the foreign firms entering China were challenged, restricted and regulated by the Chinese government and also by certain other factors. That is, even while allowing the foreign firms, the Chinese government’s policies and the existing local conditions challenges the retail firms and restricts it from becoming a success. The main challenge comes in the form of a new tax regime, which has taken away the privileges enjoyed by the foreign firms. The main aspect of this new tax regime is foreign invested firms and other Chinese-foreign joint ventures have to pay the land-use tax, equal or more than the Chinese companies. Before the introduction of this regime, the foreign firms are exempted from paying land-use tax, and were allowed to function and raise infrastructures on non-taxed lands. But, under the new regime, land-use or property-tax rate will be equal for both the local and the foreign developers, with the foreign firms’ tax requirements tripling from the old rate set in 1988. This increase in land-use tax will surely be a challenge for the retail firms, as they have pay higher taxes according to the location of their infrastructure. Regional fragmentation of the tax structure is another tax related problem which is hampering the foreign firms. Regional fragmentation of finance regulation and importantly tax laws creates a kind of regional protectionism so that a foreign company with joint ventures in several locations may have to make a separate payment from each venture to the supplier (Huffman, 2003). Even though China is accelerating at a fast rate, the internal factor of corruption is impeding its flow and has turned out to be a major challenge for the foreign firms. â€Å"With its economy soaring at around 10 percent a year for nearly three decades, China’s ascendance seems unstoppable†¦Behind China’s dynamism, however, lurk many dangers that could derail the Middle Kingdom’s re-emergence as a great power: environmental degradation, population aging†¦ and, above all, endemic corruption† (Pei, 2007). Many Chinese departments particularly ones dealing with the foreign investment have become corrupted, with the government officials manning these departments openly demanding bribes. So, with corruption expanding its tentacles throughout China, the foreign firms think twice about entering the market. The existing firms also find the ritual of bribing the government officials an irritating at the same time costly exercise. These corrupt practices could be one of the difficult challenges for the foreign firms. On a final note, while researching about the Chinese market, I came across certain government policies on employee welfare, labor relations, etc, which were actually an antithesis of what our CEO firmly believes. I will include that information also in the report because the purpose of the report is to provide a realistic picture of the Chinese market, without ethical biases. The primary focus of any organization is to give a clean management based on preset ethics. If the management and the employees are ethically perfect, they will exhibit good discipline, hard work and thus high productivity. So, I will provide a realistic and ethically perfect report incorporating all the needed information. Although those aspects are different from my CEO’s point of view, those aspects could play a crucial role when our organization decides to enter the Chinese market. I am sure my CEO will see the larger picture and consider those aspects as well during the decision making process. Reference: consume. bbk. ac. uk. (n. d). Multinational retailers in the Asia Pacific. Retrieved January 31, 2009 http://www. consume. bbk. ac. uk/research/gamble. html Huffman, T. P. (2003). Wal-Mart in China: Challenges Facing a Foreign Retailer’s Supply Chain. Retrieved January 31, 2009 http://www. chinabusinessreview. com/public/0309/wal-mart. html Pei, M. (2007). Corruption Threatens China’s Future. Retrieved January 31, 2009 http://www. carnegieendowment. org/files/pb55_pei_china_corruption_final. pdf

The Return: Nightfall Chapter 19

Matt was knocking at the Bryces' door, with Elena at his side. Elena had disguised herself by stuffing all her hair into a Virginia Cavaliers baseball cap and wearing wraparound sunglasses from one of Stefan's drawers. She was also wearing an over-large maroon and navy Pendleton shirt donated by Matt, and a pair of Meredith's outgrown jeans. She felt sure that no one who had known the old Elena Gilbert would ever recognize her, dressed like this. The door opened very slowly to reveal not Mr. or Mrs. Bryce, nor Jim, but Tamra. She was wearing – well, close to nothing. She had on a thong bikini bottom, but it looked handmade, as if she'd cut a regular bikini bottom with scissors – and it was beginning to come apart. On top she had two round decorations made of cardboard with sequins pasted on and a few strands of colored tinsel. On her head she wore a paper crown, which was clearly where she'd gotten the tinsel. She'd made an attempt to glue strands onto the bikini bottoms as well. The result looked like what it was: a child's attempt to make an outfit for a Las Vegas showgirl or stripper. Matt immediately turned around and stood facing away, but Tami threw herself at him and plastered herself to his back. â€Å"Matt Honey-butt,† she cooed. â€Å"You came back. I knew you would. But why'd you bring this ugly old whore with you? How can we – â€Å" Elena stepped forward, then, because Matt had whirled with his hand up. She was sure that Matt had never struck a female in his life, especially a child, but he was also over-sensitive about one or two subjects. Like her. Elena managed to get between Matt and the surprisingly strong Tamra. She had to hide a smile when contemplating Tami's costume. After all, only a few days ago, she hadn't understood the human nakedness taboo at all. Now she got it, but it didn't seem nearly as important as it once had. People were born with their own perfectly good skins on. There was no real reason, in her mind, to wear false skins over those, unless it was cold or somehow uncomfortable without them. But society said that to be naked was to be wicked. Tami was trying to be wicked, in her own childish way. â€Å"Get your hands off me, you old whore,† Tamra snarled as Elena held her away from Matt, and then she added several rather lengthy expletives. â€Å"Tami, where are your parents? Where's your brother?† Elena said. She ignored the obscene words – they were just sounds – but saw that Matt had gone white around the lips. â€Å"You apologize to Elena right now! Apologize for talking that way!† he demanded. â€Å"Elena's a stinking corpse with worms in her eye sockets,† Tamra sang glibly. â€Å"But my friend says she was a whore when she was alive. A real† – a string of four-letter words that made Matt gasp – â€Å"cheap whore.You know. Nothing's cheaper than something that comes free.† â€Å"Matt, just don't pay any attention,† Elena said under her breath, and she repeated, â€Å"Where are your parents and Jim?† The answer was littered with more expletives, but it amounted to the story – truthful or not – that Mr. and Mrs. Bryce had gone away on vacation for a few days, and that Jim was with his girlfriend, Isobel. â€Å"Okay, then, I guess I'll just have to help you get into some more decent clothes,† Elena said. â€Å"First, I think you need a shower to get these Christmas doodads off – â€Å" â€Å"Just try-hy-hy! Just try-hy-hy!† The answer was somewhere between the whinny of a horse and human speech. â€Å"I glued them on with PermaStick!† Tami added and then began giggling on a high and hysterical note. â€Å"Oh, my God – Tamra, do you realize that if there isn't some solvent for this, you may need surgery?† Tami's answer was foul. There was also a sudden foul smell. No, not a smell, Elena thought: a choking, gutcurdling stench. â€Å"Oops!† Tami gave that high, glassy giggle again. â€Å"Pardonmoi . At least it'snatural gas.† Matt cleared his throat. â€Å"Elena – I don't think we should be here. With her folks gone and all†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"They're afraid of me,† Tamra giggled. â€Å"Aren'tyou ?† – very suddenly in a voice that had dropped several octaves. Elena looked Tamra in the eye. â€Å"No, I'm not. I just feel sorry for a little girl who was in the wrong place at the wrong time. But Matt's right, I guess. We have to go.† Tami's whole manner seemed to change. â€Å"I'm so sorry†¦. I didn't realize I had guests of that caliber. Don't go, please, Matt.† Then she added in a confidential whisper to Elena, â€Å"Is he any good?† â€Å"What?† Tami nodded at Matt, who immediately turned his back to her. He looked as if he felt a terrible, repulsive fascination for Tami's ridiculous appearance. â€Å"Him. Is he any good in the sack?† â€Å"Matt, look at this.† Elena held up a small tube of glue. â€Å"I think she actually did PermaStick that stuff to her skin. We have to call Child Protective Services or whatever, because nobody took her to the hospital right away. Whether her parents knew about this behavior or not, they shouldn't have just left her.† â€Å"I just hopethey're all right. Her family,† Matt said grimly as they walked out the door, with Tami coolly following them to the car, and shouting lurid details about â€Å"what a good time† they had had, â€Å"the three of them.† Elena glanced at him uneasily from her place in the passenger seat – with no ID or driver's license, of course, she knew she shouldn't drive. â€Å"Maybe we'd better take her to the police first. My God, that poor family!† Matt said nothing for a long time. His chin was set, his mouth grim. â€Å"I feel somehow as if I'm responsible. I mean, I knew there was something wrong with her – I should have told her parents then.† â€Å"Now you're sounding like Stefan. You're not responsible for everyone you meet.† Matt gave her a grateful glance, and Elena continued, â€Å"In fact I'm going to ask Bonnie and Meredith to do one other thing, which proves you're not. I'm going to ask them to check on Isobel Saitou, Jim's girlfriend.You've never had any contact with her, but Tami might have.† â€Å"You mean you think she's got it, too?† â€Å"That's what I hope Bonnie and Meredith will find out.† Bonnie stopped dead, almost losing her hold on Mrs. Forbes's feet. â€Å"I am not going into that bedroom.† â€Å"You have to. I can't manage her alone,† Meredith said. Then she added cajolingly, â€Å"Look, Bonnie, if you go in with me, I'll tell you a secret.† Bonnie bit her lip. Then she shut her eyes and let Meredith guide her, step by step, farther into this house of horror. She knew where the master bedroom was – after all, she had played here since childhood. All the way down the hall, then turn left. She was surprised when Meredith came to a sudden stop after only a few steps. â€Å"Bonnie.† â€Å"Well? What?† â€Å"I don't want to frighten you, but – â€Å" This had the immediate effect of terrifying Bonnie. Her eyes snapped open. â€Å"What?What? † Before Meredith could answer she glanced over her shoulder in fear and saw what. Caroline was behind her. But not standing. She was crawling – no, she was scuttling, the way she had on Stefan's floor. Like a lizard. Her bronze hair, unkempt, hung down over her face. Her elbows and knees stuck out at impossible angles. Bonnie screamed, but the pressure of the house seemed to choke the scream back down her throat. The only effect it had was to make Caroline look up at her with a quick reptilian movement of her head. â€Å"Oh, my God – Caroline, what happened to your face?† Caroline had a black eye. Or rather, a purplish-red eye that was so swollen that Bonnie knew it would have to turn black in time. On her jaw was another purple swelling bruise. Caroline didn't answer, unless you counted the sibilant hiss she gave while scuttling forward. â€Å"Meredith, run! She's right behind me!† Meredith quickened her pace, looking frightened – all the more frightening to Bonnie because almost nothing could shake her friend. But as they lurched forward, with Mrs. Forbes bouncing between them, Caroline scuttled right under her mother and into the door of her parents' room, the master bedroom. â€Å"Meredith, I won't go in th – † But they were already stumbling through the door. Bonnie shot quick darting glances into every corner. Caroline was nowhere to be seen. â€Å"Maybe she's in the closet,† Meredith said. â€Å"Now, let me go first and put her head on the far side of the bed. We can adjust her later.† She backed around the bed, almost dragging Bonnie with her, and dumped Mrs. Forbes's upper torso so that her head rested on pillows. â€Å"Now just pull her and put her legs down on the other side.† â€Å"I can't do it. I can't! Caroline'sunder the bed, you know.† â€Å"She can't be under the bed. There's only about a five-inch clearance,† Meredith said firmly. â€Å"She's there! Iknow it. And† – rather fiercely – â€Å"you promised you'd tell me a secret.† â€Å"All right!† Meredith gave a complicit glance through her disheveled dark hair. â€Å"I telegraphed Alaric yesterday. He's so far out in the boonies that telegraph is the only way to reach him, and it may be days before my message gets to him. I had an idea that we were going to need his advice. I feel bad, asking him to do projects that aren't for his doctorate, but – â€Å" â€Å"Who cares about his doctorate? Godbless you!† cried Bonnie thankfully. â€Å"You did just right!† â€Å"Then come on and swing Mrs. Forbes' feet around the bottom of the bed. You can do it if you lean in.† The bed was a California king-size. Mrs. Forbes was lying at an angle across it, like a doll thrown on the floor. But Bonnie halted near the foot of the bed. â€Å"Caroline's going to grab me.† â€Å"No, she won't. Come on, Bonnie. Just get Mrs. Forbes' legs and give one big heave†¦.† â€Å"If I get that close to the bed, she'llgrab me!† â€Å"Why should she?† â€Å"Because she knows what scares me! And now that I've said it, shedefinitely will.† â€Å"If she grabs you, I'll come and kick her in the face.† â€Å"Your leg's not that long. It would bang on the metal bed-frame thingummy – â€Å" â€Å"Oh, for God's sake, Bonnie! Just help meheeeeeeere !† The last word was a full-fledged scream. â€Å"Meredith – † began Bonnie, and then she screamed, too. â€Å"What is it?† â€Å"She's grabbing me!† â€Å"She can't be!She's grabbingme ! Nobody has arms that long!† â€Å"Or that strong! Bonnie!I can't make her let go!† â€Å"Neither can I!† And then any words were drowned in screaming. After dropping Tami off with the police, driving Elena around the woods known as the Fell's State Park was†¦well, a walk in the park. Every so often they would stop. Elena would go a few steps into the trees and stand, Calling – however you did that. Then she came back to the Jaguar, looking discouraged. â€Å"I'm not sure that Bonnie wouldn't be better at this,† she said to Matt. â€Å"If we can brace ourselves to go out at night.† Matt shuddered involuntarily. â€Å"Two nights were enough.† â€Å"Do you know, you never told me your story from that first night. Or at least, not when I could understand words, spoken words.† â€Å"Well, I was driving around like this, except almost on the other side of the Old Wood – near the Lightning-Split Oak area†¦?† â€Å"Right.† â€Å"When right in the middle of the road something appears.† â€Å"A fox?† â€Å"Well, it was red in the headlights, but it wasn't like any fox I've ever seen. And I've been driving this road since I could drive.† â€Å"A wolf?† â€Å"Like a werewolf, you mean? But, no – I've seen wolves by moonlight and they're bigger. This was right in between.† â€Å"In other words,† Elena said, narrowing her lapis lazuli eyes, â€Å"a custom-made creature.† â€Å"Maybe. It sure was different from the malach that chewed my arm up.† Elena nodded. Malach could take all sorts of different forms, from what she understood. But they were siblings in one way: they all used Power and they all needed a diet of Power to live. And they could be manipulated by a stronger Power than they had. And they were venomous enemies of humans. â€Å"So all we really know is that we don't know anything.† â€Å"Right. That was the place back there, where we saw it. It just suddenly appeared in the middle of the – hey!† â€Å"Go right! Righthere !† â€Å"Just like that! It was just like that!† The Jaguar screeched almost to a stop, turning right, not into a ditch but into a small lane that no one would notice unless they were looking directly at it. When the car stopped, they both stared up the lane, breathing hard. Neither had to ask whether the other had seen a reddish creature zip across the road, bigger than a fox but smaller than a wolf. They looked up at the narrow lane. â€Å"The million-dollar question: should we go in?† Matt asked. â€Å"NoKEEP OUT signs – and hardly any houses on this side of the wood. Across the street and down a way there's the Dunstans'.† â€Å"So we go in?† â€Å"We go in. Just go slowly. It's later than I thought.† Meredith, of course, was the one to calm down first. â€Å"Allright , Bonnie,† she said. â€Å"Stop it! Now! It's not going to do any good here!† Bonnie didn't think shecould stop it. But Meredith had that special look in her dark eyes; the one that meant she was serious. The look she'd had before laying Caroline out on Stefan's floor. Bonnie made a supreme effort and found that somehow she was able to hold in the next shriek. She looked dumbly at Meredith, feeling her own body shake. â€Å"Good. Good, Bonnie. Now.† Meredith swallowed. â€Å"Pulling doesn't do any good, either. So I'm going to try†¦peeling her fingers off. If anything happens to me; if I get – pulled under the bed or anything, then yourun , Bonnie. And if you can't run, then you call Elena and Matt. You call until you get an answer.† Bonnie managed something almost heroic then. She refused to picture Meredith being pulled under the bed. She wouldn't let herself imagine how that would look as Meredith, struggling, disappeared, or how she would feel, all alone, after that. They'd both left their purses with their mobile phones in the entryway to carry Mrs. Forbes, so Meredith wasn't saying to call them in any normal sense. She meant Call them. A sudden radical burst of indignation swept through Bonnie. Why did girls carry purses anyway? Even the efficient, reliable Meredith often did it. Of course Meredith's purses were usually designer handbags that enhanced her outfits and were full of useful things like small notebooks and keychain flashlights, but still†¦a boy would have his mobile phone in his pocket. From now on, I'm wearing a waist pouch, Bonnie thought, feeling as if she were raising a rebel flag for girls everywhere, and for just a moment also feeling her panic recede. Then she saw Meredith stooping, a hunched figure in the dim light, and at the same moment she felt the grip on her own ankle tighten. Despite herself she glanced down, and saw the outline of Caroline's tanned fingers and long bronze nails against the creamy white of the rug. Panic burst out in her again, full force. She made a choked sound that was a strangled scream, and to her own astonishment she spontaneously hit trance and began to Call. It wasn't the fact that she was Calling that surprised her. It was what she was saying. Damon! Damon! We're trapped at Caroline's house and she's gone crazy! Help! It flowed out of her like an underwater well that had been suddenly tapped, releasing a geyser. Damon, she's got me by the ankle – and she won't let go! If she pulls Meredith under, I don't know what I'll do! Help me! Vaguely, because the trance was good and deep, she heard Meredith say, â€Å"Ah-hah! It feels like fingers, but actually it's a vine. It must be one of those tentacles that Matt told us about. I'm – trying – to break one of the loops – off†¦Ã¢â‚¬  All at once there was a rustling from under the bed. And not just from one place, either, but a massive whipping and shaking that actually bounced the mattress up and down, even with poor little Mrs. Forbes on it. There must be dozens of those insects under there. Damon, it's thosethings! Lots of them. Oh, God, I think I'm going to faint. And if I faint – and if Caroline pulls me under†¦Oh, please come and help! â€Å"Damn!† Meredith was saying. â€Å"I don't know how Matt managed to do this. It's too tight, and – and I think there's more than one tentacle here.† It's all over,Bonnie sent in quiet conclusion, feeling herself start to go at the knees.We're going to die. â€Å"Undoubtedly – that's the problem with humans. But not justyet ,† a voice said from behind her, and a strong arm went around her, taking up her weight easily. â€Å"Caroline, the fun's over. I mean it. Letgo!† â€Å"Damon?† Bonnie gasped. â€Å"Damon? You came!† â€Å"All that wailing gets on my nerves. It doesn't mean – â€Å" But Bonnie wasn't listening. She wasn't even thinking. She was still half in trance and not responsible (she decided later) for her own actions. She wasn'therself . It was someone else who went into rapture when the grip on her ankle loosened, and someone else who whirled around in Damon's grip and threw her arms around his neck and kissed him on the mouth. It was someone else, too, who felt Damon startle, with his arms still around her, and who noticed that he made no attempt to pull away from the kiss. That person also noticed, when at last she leaned back, that Damon's skin, pale in the dim light, looked almost as if he had flushed. And that was when Meredith straightened up slowly, painfully, from the other side of the bed, which was still jouncing up and down. She hadn't seen anything of the kiss, and looked at Damon as if she couldn't believe he was really here. She was at a great disadvantage, and Bonnie knew she knew it. This was one of those situations where anyone else would have been too flustered to speak, or even stammer. But Meredith just took a deep breath and then said quietly, â€Å"Damon. Thank you. Do you think – would it be too much trouble to make the malach let go of me, as well?† Now Damon looked like his old self. He gave a brilliant smile aimed at something no one else could see and said sharply, â€Å"And as for the rest of you down there – heel!† He snapped his fingers. The bed stopped moving instantly. Meredith stepped away, and closed her eyes for a moment in relief. â€Å"Thank you again,† she said, with the dignity of a princess, but fervently. â€Å"And now, do you think you could do anything about Caro – â€Å" â€Å"Right now,† Damon cut in even more roughly than usual, â€Å"I have to run.† He glanced at the Rolex on his wrist. â€Å"It's past 4:44, and I had an appointment I'm already late for. Come around here and prop up this dizzy bundle. She's not quite ready to stand by herself.† Meredith hastened to switch places with him. At that point, Bonnie discovered that her legs were no longer wobbling. â€Å"Wait a minute, though,† Meredith said rapidly. â€Å"Elenaneeds to talk to you – desperately – â€Å" But Damon was gone, as if he'd mastered the art of simply disappearing, not even waiting for Bonnie's thanks. Meredith looked astonished, as if she'd been certain that the mention of Elena's name would stop him, but Bonnie had something else on her mind. â€Å"Meredith,† Bonnie whispered, putting two fingers to her lips in amazement. â€Å"I kissed him!† â€Å"What?When? â€Å" â€Å"Before you stood up. I – don't even know how it happened but I did it!† She expected some kind of explosion from Meredith. Instead, Meredith looked at her thoughtfully and murmured, â€Å"Well, maybe it wasn't such a bad thing to do, after all. What I don't understand is why he turned up in the first place.† â€Å"Uh. That was me, too. I Called him. I don't know how that happened either – â€Å" â€Å"Well, there's no point in trying to figure it out in here.† Meredith turned toward the bed. â€Å"Caroline, are you coming out of there? Are you going to stand up and have a normal conversation?† There was a menacing and reptilian hiss from under the bed, along with the whipping of tentacles and another noise that Bonnie had never heard before but which terrified her instinctively, like the snapping of giant pincers. â€Å"That's answer enough for me,† she said, and grabbed Meredith to drag her out of the room. Meredith didn't need dragging. But for the first time today they heard Caroline's taunting voice, lifted childishly high. â€Å"Bonnie and Damon sitting in a tree K-I-S-S-I-N-G. First comes love, then comes marriage; Then there comes a vampire in a baby carriage.† Meredith paused in the hallway. â€Å"Caroline, you know that that isn't going to help matters. Come out – â€Å" The bed went into a frenzy, bucking and heaving. Bonnie turned and ran, and she knew Meredith was right behind her. They still didn't manage to outpace the singsong words: â€Å"You're notmy friends; you're thewhore's friends. Just you wait! Just youwait !† Bonnie and Meredith grabbed their purses and left the house. â€Å"What time is it?† Bonnie asked, when they were safely in Meredith's car. â€Å"Almost five.† â€Å"It seemed like so much longer!† â€Å"I know, but we've got hours of daylight left. And, come to that, I have a text message from Elena.† â€Å"About Tami?† â€Å"I'll tell you about it. But first – † It was one of the few times Bonnie had seen Meredith look awkward. Finally she blurted, â€Å"How was it?† â€Å"How was what?† â€Å"Kissing Damon, you nitwit!†

L.L. Bean Item forecasting case study Essays

L.L. Bean Item forecasting case study Essays L.L. Bean Item forecasting case study Paper L.L. Bean Item forecasting case study Paper Essay Topic: The Bean Eaters Harvard Business School 9-893-003 Rev. September 7, 1993 L. L. Bean, Inc. Item Forecasting and Inventory Management When you order an item from an L. L. Bean catalog and were out of stock, Im the guy to blame. And if we end up liquidating a bunch of womens wool cashmere blazers, its my fault. No one understands how tough it is. Mark Fasold, Vice President† Inventory Management, was describing the challenge of item forecasting at L. L. Bean. Forecasting demand at the aggregate level is a piece of cake†if were running short of expectations, we Just dip deeper into our customer list and send out some more atalogs. But we have to decide how many chamois shirts and how many chino trousers to buy, and if were too high on one and too low on the other, its no solace to know that we were exactly right on the average. Top management understands this in principle, but they are understandably disturbed that errors at the item level are so large. In a catalog business like ours, you really capture demand. Thats the good news. The bad news is, you learn what a lousy Job youre doing trying to match demand with supply. Its not like that in a department store, say, where a customer ay come in looking for a dress shirt and lets the display of available shirts generate the demand for a particular item. Or if a customer has some particular item in mind but its not available, he or she may Just walk out of the store. In a department store you never know the real demand or the consequences of understocking. But in our business every sale is generated by a customer demanding a particular item, either by mail or by phone. If we havent got it, and the customer cancels the order, we know it. Rol Fessenden, Manager†Inventory Systems, added: We know that forecast errors are inevitable. Competition, the economy, weather are all factors. But demand at the item level is also affected by customer behavior, which is very hard to predict, or even to explain in retrospect. Every so often some item takes off and becomes a runaway, far exceeding our demand forecasts. Once in a while we can detect the trend early on and, with a cooperative vendor, get more product manufactured in a hurry and chase demand; most of the time, however, the runaways leave us Just turning customers away. And for every runaway, theres a dog item that sells way below expectations and that you couldnt even give away to customers. Annual costs of lost sales and backorders were conservatively estimated to be $11 million; costs associated with having too much of the wrong inventory were an additional $10 million. This case was prepared by Professor Arthur Schleifer, Jr. as the basis for class discussion rather than to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of an administrative situation. Copyright 1992 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, call 1-800-545-7685, write Harvard Business School Publishing, Boston, MA 02163, or go to ttp://www. hbsp. harvard. edu. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means†electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise†without the permission of Harvard Business School. 893-003 L. L. Bean Background In 1912 Leon Leonwood Bean invented the Maine Hunting Shoe (a combination of lightweight leather uppers and rubber bottoms). He obtained a list of nonresident Maine hunting license holders, prepared a descriptive mail-order circular, set up hop in his brothers basement in Freeport, Maine, and started a nationwide mail- order business. The inauguration of the U. S. Post Offices domestic parcel post service in that year provided a means of delivering orders to customers. When L. L. Bean died in 1967, at the age of 94, sales had reached $4. 75 million, his company employed 200 people, and an annual catalog was distributed to a mailing list of 600,000 people. L. L. s Golden Rule had been Sell good merchandise at a reasonable profit, treat your customers like human beings, and theyll always come back for more. When Leon Gorman, L. L. s grandson, succeeded him as president in 1967, he sought to expand and modernize the business without deviating from his grandfathers Golden Rule. By 1991, L. L. Bean, Inc. as a major cataloger, manufacturer, and retailer in the outdoor sporting specialty field: Catalog sales in 1990 were $528 million, with an additional $71 million in sales from the companys 50,000 square-foot retail store in Freeport. Twenty-two different catalogs (often referred to as books by company employees)†114 million pieces in all†were mailed that year. There were six million active customers. The mail-order business had been giving way to tele phone orders after the company installed nationwide 800 service in 1986. By 1991, 80% of all orders came in by telephone. Major direct- mail competitors included Lands End, Eddie Bauer, Talbots, and Orvis. A 1991 Consumer Reports survey on customer satisfaction with mail-order companies found L. L. Bean heading the list for overall satisfaction in every category for which they offered merchandise. In explaining why L. L. Bean had not expanded its retail operations beyond the one store in Freeport, Leon Gorman contrasted the direct- arketing (catalog) and retail businesses. The two approaches require very different kinds of management. Mail-order marketers are very analytic, quantitatively oriented. Retailers have to be creative, promotional, pizzazzy, merchandise-oriented. Its tough to assemble one management team that can handle both functions. 1 Product Lines L. L. Beans product line was classified hierarchically (see Exhibit 1). At the highest level of aggregation were Merchandise Groups: mens and womens accessories, mens and womens apparel, mens and womens footwear, camping equipment, etc. Within each Group were Demand Centers; for instance, womens apparel had as Demand Centers knit shirts, sweaters, pants, skirts, Jackets and pullovers, etc. Each Demand Center was further broken down into Item Sequences; for example, womens sweaters consisted of Midnight Mesa Handknit Cardigans, Indian Point Pullovers, Lambswool Turtlenecks, and about twenty other products. Item Sequences were further broken down into individual items, distinguished primarily by color; it was at this item level that forecasts had to be issued and, ultimately, purchase commitments had to be made. About 6,000 items appeared in one or another of the catalogs that were issued in the course of a year. 1 L. L. Bean, Inc. Corporate Strategy, Harvard Business School Case (581-159), 1981. 21tems were further broken down by size into stock-keeping units, or SWs. This was done by applying standard size-distribution breakdowns. Although an inappropriate distribution could lead to excessive inventory of some sizes and stockouts of others, management concern was directed to the item level, since there was no evidence of a better system than assuming that the distribut ion of demand by size would behave in the uture as it had in the past, and would be indistinguishable from one item to another. Items were also classified into three seasonal categories (spring, fall, and all year), and into two additional categories (new or never out) that described whether the item was a recent or more permanent member of the companys offerings, and consequently characterized the amount of historical demand data available for the item. The Bean Catalogs The major catalogs†spring, summer, fall, and Christmas†each came out in several versions. A full catalog, running from 116 to 152 pages, went to Beans regular ustomers. A smaller prospect catalog was circulated to potential customers; it contained primarily a subset of items from the full catalog. (Bean identified such prospect customers in a variety of ways, for example, through the purchase of mailing lists, or by recording recipients of gifts from other Bean customers. ) In addition, a number of specialty catalogs†Spring Weekend, Summer Camp, Fly Fishing, etc. † presented items that were unique to that catalog, as well as some items found in the major catalogs. There was some overlap in circulation: the best ustomers received almost all the catalogs, and those customers known, through past purchasing behavior, to be interested in various specialties might receive an appropriate specialty catalog in addition to the seasonal full catalogs. Item Forecasting Each catalog had a gestation period of about nine months, and its creation involved merchandising, design, product, and inventory specialists. For example, the initial conceptualization for the Fall, 1991 season began in October, 1990. Preliminary forecasts of total sales for each catalog were made in December. Product managers eveloped preliminary item forecasts by book in the December, 1990 to March, 1991 time frame. Layout and pagination of the books began in January, 1991. Initial commitments to vendors were made in January and February. In the subsequent months, as the catalogs took shape, item forecasts were repeatedly revised and finally frozen by May 1. By early July a black-and-white version of the layout was available internally. At this point, the product managers handed off their product line to the inventory managers. The completed Fall 1991 catalogs were in the hands of customers around August 1 . As the catalog generated demand, inventory managers decided on additional commitments to vendors, scheduled replenishments, handled backorders, etc. This catalog remained active through January, 1992; inventory left over at that time might be liquidated, marked down and sold through special L. L. Bean promotions, or carried over to the next year. Scott Sklar was a buyer for mens shirts. He described the forecasting process as follows: Four or five of us†my inventory buyer, some product people, and I†meet to forecast shirt sales by book. We start by ranking various items in terms of expected ollar sales. Then we actually assign dollars in accordance with the ranking. Theres discussion, arguments, complaints. People invent rules of thumb. I say invent, because there arent any good rules of thumb. We set this up on an Excel spreadsheet. We look at the book forecast and make adjustments accordingly. We look at the total of forecasted shirt sales and check it for reality. Does it feel good? Does it make sense? We do it book by book, item by item, and thats how we get an item level forecast. Of course, when we add a new item, we have to make a Judgment: will this item enerate incremental demand, and if not, from what items is it going to steal demand? And then those items need to be adjusted accordingly. 3 Barbara Hamaluk, a buyer for mens knit shirts, observed that the sum of the item forecasts for a catalog was often at variance with the dollar target for that book. Usually this roll-up comes in on the high side, so you try to reduce forecasts on certain items. Or you can Just say, if were too high by 10%, well Just slash everything across the board by 10%. We really ought to have an intermediate level of forecasts t the Demand Center level, reconcile item forecasts with Demand Center forecasts, and the latter with the book forecast. Production Commitments The typical producti on lead time for most domestic orders was eight to twelve weeks. (Of course, deliveries against a commitment could be scheduled to conform to the anticipated pattern of in-season demand. With some vendors who cooperated with L. L. Beans Quick Response initiative, it was possible, after observing some early- season demand, to place a second order, which would be delivered in sufficient time to meet late-season demand. However, with many domestic and most offshore vendors, lead times were sufficiently long so that it was impractical to place a second commitment order in the course of the season. (In the remainder of this case, then, discussion will be limited to these one-shot commitments. The commitments were generally not equal in size to the forecasts, but were determined in two steps as follows: First, historical forecast errors (expressed as AIF ratios the ratio of actual demand to forecast demand) were computed for each item in the previous year, and the frequency distribution o f these errors was compiled cross items. 3 The frequency distribution of past forecast errors was then used as a probability distribution for the as yet unrealized future forecast errors. For example, if 50% of the forecast errors for new items in the past year had been between 0. and 1. 6, then it would be assumed that with probability 0. 5, the forecast error for any new item in the current year also would fall between 0. 7 and 1. 6. So in such a case, if the frozen forecast for a particular item were 1,000 units, it was then assumed that with probability 0. 5, actual demand for that item would end up being between 700 nd 1,600 units. Next, each items commitment quantity was determined by balancing the individual items contribution margin if demanded against its liquidation cost (or value) if not demanded. Suppose, for example, that an item cost Bean $1 5, would regularly sell for $30, and could be sold at liquidation for $10. The gain for selling a marginal unit would be $30 15 = $15; the loss for failing to sell the marginal unit would be the cost less the liquidation value, i. e. $15 10 = $5. Accordingly, the optimal order size should be the 0. 75 fractile of the items probability distribution of demand. Suppose the 0. 75 fractile of the distribution of forecast errors was 1. 3, and the frozen forecast for that item was for 1,000 units. Then the 0. 75 fractile of the demand distribution would be 1,000 x 1. = 1,300, and Bean would make a commitment for 1,300 units. Rol Fessenden expressed concern that the methodology treated the errors associated with all never out items as equally representative of the forecast errors that might be anticipated for the forecast demand of any never out item (and similarly for new items). mioud think that the error distribution for some of our buyers might be ighter than for other buyers, or that the distribution for womens sweaters might have more dispersion than the distribution for mens footwear, but we cant find any real differences. Also, Im not entirely convinced that we go about estimating contribution margin and liquidation cost correctly. Mark Fasold was worried about the wide dispersion in forecast errors, both for never outs and new items. He was also concerned about the implications of the methodology: If the cost 3This was done separately for new items and for never outs; not surprisingly, the historical error istribution of never outs had less dispersion than that of new items. No other way of segmenting items had revealed significantly different distributions of forecast errors. 4 associated with understocking exceeds the cost of overstocking, which is the usual case here, we end up committing to more than the frozen forecast. And for new items, about which we obviously know very little, the excess over the frozen forecast is even greater than for never outs. The buyers are understandably upset when we commit to more than they forecast; they perceive us as going way out on a limb for new items. Exhibit 1 5